Many of my predictions here
will be tentative as I have yet to see all of this year’s contenders. The fact
that the frontrunner for many of the top awards, “The Artist”, is probably
still a ways away from a wide enough release to allow me to see it will greatly
hinder my perceptions of just how the Oscars should play out, but not so much
on how it actually will. The surprise nominations will also present a challenge
for me, as they include several films that I’ve yet to see. Regardless, I will
do my best to see clearly what these nominations mean and whom they might be
going to on Oscar night.
Before I get into my
analysis of the nominations, however, I’d like to address an ongoing debate
that seems to come up every year. Do the Oscars really honor the best the film
industry has to offer? There is much debate as to whether these award ceremonies
are actually dedicated to honoring artistic excellence, or are they just
propaganda to the capitalist machine that runs the entertainment industry?
The Grammys are often sited
as an event structured only for populist and moneymaking propaganda in the
music industry. This may well be true. It's hard to tell with such a large
awards field as what the Grammys has to face each and every year. With the
sheer volume of material to consider in the music industry, it would be
impossible to fairly consider every individual artistic effort submitted each
year.
The Oscars has a wide field
to consider as well, with 265 films eligible for competition this year.
However, I believe their track record speaks for itself. Yes, many great films
are overlooked each and every year. Yes, sometimes an undeserving candidate
wins out over other obviously better possibilities. On the other hand, the
field is rarely filled only with mainstream drivel. Every year, people complain
that too many of the nominees are independently made, harder to access movies.
This is because that is where the quality filmmaking is happening for the most
part.
This year the movie with the
second most nominations is a black & white silent movie. Today, that could
only happen with an organization that is set on awarding excellence above the
dollar. Surely, the Brothers Weistein are good businessmen who will spin their
movie into more of a moneymaker than anybody could’ve imagined for such a film
in this special effects driven era, but they also make a point to single out
quality material. So, I do believe the Oscars still award quality over whatever
is driving their business.
Best Picture
There was much controversy
this year over the new rules for Best Picture. For the past two years, ten
films have been nominated in this category; before that five. Because some felt
ten nominees presented too large a representative of lower quality films
highlighted, the Academy changed the policy to allow from 5
to 10 films to be nominated for Best Picture this year. So the big question
going into Tuesday’s nominations was just how many pictures would be nominated?
“The Artist”, “Hugo”, “The
Descendants”, “Midnight in Paris”, and “The Help” were considered the five sure
shots. The next three, “Moneyball”, “The Tree of Life”, and “War Horse” weren’t
too much of a surprise either. Some figured one or two other films had a shot
to replace one of these three, but I think many people were pretty sure eight
movies would be it. The big surprise was “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
nabbing a ninth spot. This movie was thought to be a pretty long shot because
of poor critical reception. I would’ve liked to see “Shame”, “Melancholia”, or
“Take Shelter” get the extra attention, and many feel that a comedy like
“Bridesmaids” would’ve made a nice change of tune for the possibly anti-comedy
Academy voters. Also, I think “The
Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” would’ve been a better choice than “War Horse”.
The Oscar will go to “The
Artist”. A month ago, I thought we might actually obtain some unpredictability
in this category with a good duke out between “The Artist” and “The
Descendants”, but the momentum for “The Descendants” has slowed in that time.
If any film has even the slightest, dark horse, outside chance against “The
Artist”, it is the movie with the most nominations, “Hugo”. However, the Academy
will award the more challenging film here.
If I had my way “The Tree of
Life” would get it. Even though I’ve yet to see “The Artist” and have no doubts
that I will enjoy it as much as it seems everyone who’s seen it has, I can’t
see it replacing “The Tree of Life” as the year’s best achievement in film in
my personal opinion.
Best Animated Feature
This was one of the day’s
biggest surprise categories. The fact that Pixar was snubbed for the first time
ever in this category’s existence is a shock. “Cars 2” isn’t as respected as
most of their output, but it wasn’t an extremely strong year for animation. The
omission of “The Adventures of Tintin” is disappointing, but not quite as
surprising. There is great controversy within the Academy about the veracity of
the motion capture technology used to create the animation of “Tin Tin” as a
legitimate form of animation. It was a surprise that the Academy allowed it
into consideration, no surprise that it didn’t make the final cut. “Kung Fu
Panda 2” and “Puss in Boots” are fun movies, but not really award material. Their
inclusion is not so much a surprise as it is disappointing. “A Cat in Paris”
and “Chico & Rita” are out of the blue nominations in this category as very
few people outside of the Academy’s Animation committee has seen them. “Rango”
was the only sure bet here.
The Oscar will go to
“Rango”. This probably would’ve been the case without the surprises. “Rango” is
the only strong candidate that is likely to be seen by enough Academy
members to win.
If it were up to me “Rango”
would get it. “Rango” is witty and original, but I’d prefer it if “Tintin” was still eligible.
Best Actor
There are two pointed
surprises in this category, although both were predicted as possible nomination
stealers. Demián Bichir for “A Better Life” has been highly praised for his
work in the little seen movie and Gary Oldman for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier,
Spy” was thought to be a likely spoiler. The two major snubs are Leonardo
DiCaprio for “J. Edgar” and Michael Fassbender for “Shame”. “J. Edgar” didn’t
make the impressions most thought it would, but DiCaprio was still expected to
get some recognition. The Academy voters, whose average age is about 60,
might’ve shied away from the sexual NC-17 nature of “Shame”.
That leaves Brad Pitt for
“Moneyball”, George Clooney for “The Descendants” and the favorite, Jean
Dujardin for “The Artist”. Pitt’s nomination will be enough to honor him for
his two strong performances this year, the other coming in “The Tree of Life”.
Clooney might have a fighting chance against Dujardin just because of his
likeability and the opportunity to give a little more attention to the fine
work in “The Descendants”.
The Oscar will go to
Dujardin. Although Clooney’s been biding his time, he’ll have to wait a little
longer because the Academy can’t resist the chance to watch a foreigner ham it
up, ala Roberto Benigni’s win for “Life is Beautiful”.
If I had my way it would go
to Brad Pitt, but more so for his work in “The Tree of Life” than “Moneyball”.
Best Actress
Now, we’re really getting
into surprise and snub territory as this category really threw some curve
balls. Meryl Streep, Viola Davis and Michelle Williams were all expected to get
their nods, but there were three other strong candidates with Charlize Theron
for “Young Adult”, Tilda Swinton for “We Need To Talk About Kevin”, and Kirsten
Dunst for “Melancholia”, who all got locked out. While one of these women had
to lose out, all three is a shock. I’m not surprised that Rooney Mara stole one
of these spots for her superb work as the titular “Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo”, but “Albert Nobbs” made a surprising last quarter score with Glenn
Close’s nomination (and another). With very little buzz going into awards
season and less than impressive notices, “Albert Nobbs” is one of the biggest
surprises of these nominations, but the Academy does love cross-gender roles.
Those two long shots leave
Streep, Williams, and Davis poised for one of the least predictable awards of
the lot. Conventional wisdom might suggest that with the most nominations of
any on screen performer ever and without a win since 1983’s “Sophie’s Choice”,
this would be the year that the trophy would finally go back to Streep for her
work in “The Iron Lady”. Williams, on the other hand, is a sentimental favorite
for several reasons. She’s been nominated twice before and has a knack for
picking challenging roles, her personal hardships have been lived in the
Hollywood tabloids having lost the father of her child, posthumous Oscar-winner Heath Ledger, in a
surprising overdose, and the Academy loves to see an actor play another acting
icon as Williams gives them with her nominated role in “My Week with Marilyn”.
Davis burst onto the Academy’s radar a couple of years ago, however, with her
less than ten-minute nominated role in “Doubt”. This one is up for grabs.
The Oscar will go to Davis.
Williams, with her smart choices, will surely make another award worthy film
and Streep’s “Iron Lady” hasn’t received the greatest notices beyond Streep’s performance as Margaret Thatcher. Davis also gives the Academy a
chance to honor the most popular Best Picture nominee “The Help”.
If I had my way it would go
to Mara for her amazing performance as “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”. I
can’t emphasize enough how much I feel this is the best female performance of
the year. She improved upon an already amazing performance by Noomi Rapace in
the Swedish original just two years ago.
Best Supporting Actor
This category held some of
the biggest surprises of the nominees. Kenneth Branagh’s nomination as Sir
Lawrence Olivier in “My Week with Marilyn” was expected and falls within the
Academy’s love for actors playing other actors. Christopher Plummer’s nod for
his work as a retired widower who announces his homosexuality in “Beginners” is
also a no-brainer. I thought Jonah Hill’s excellent work in “Moneyball” was a
sure nomination, but news reports of shock from the audience during the live
announcement suggest otherwise. I’ve watched the footage a couple of times, and
it seems the reports are exaggerated. The real shocker is Nick Nolte’s bid for
the completely un-hyped “Warrior”. I will eagerly await my disc from Netflix
now. Max von Sydow’s role in “Extremely Loud” was a critical favorite and many
were pleased by this surprise inclusion.
The biggest omission here is
Albert Brooks for his unlikely turn as a gangster in “Drive”. Many feel that
the comedian has been over praised for his work in this film, but I feel the
final two scenes of the movie, where he confronts the Driver in the restaurant
and the parking lot, set this character apart from typical villainous
performances. Also Armie Hammer’s work as Hoover’s confidant and would be lover
in “J. Edgar” is one of the year’s best supporting performances. His absence from the list of finalists is a shame. Finally, the Academy’s non-stance on motion
capture performances also manifests itself here with the omission of Andy
Serkis for his role as Caesar in “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”. The Academy
faces a necessary debate in determining just where motion capture lies within
their parameters as the practice becomes ever more popular and has greater
influence over the artistic and commercial success of our movies.
The Oscar will go to
Plummer. The Academy loves actors taking risks playing homosexuals and Plummer
has dominated this category all awards season. Sydow could steal it in order
for the Academy to honor his more than 60 years in the business performing in
some of the greatest movies ever made.
If I had my way it would go
to Hill as surely as I would give Actress to Mara. Hill’s is easily the best
supporting performance in a film this year. He accomplishes a thing on screen
that is the essence of great acting, but usually ends up on the editing
floor. He listens.
Best Supporting Actress
Again a category with more
than one surprise. “Albert Nobbs” lands its second take away here for Janet
McTeer’s work. McTeer was nominated once before for her leading work in 1999’s
“Tumbleweeds”. Melissa McCarthy is a welcome surprise for the funniest role in
one of this year’s funniest movies, “Bridesmaids”. There was some question as
to whether Bérénice Bejo would be nominated here or in the Actress category for
her role in “The Artist”. This is the right place for her, since the race for
Actress is so tight. “The Help” is
represented as expected by both Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer. The
Supporting category is a great place for an ensemble film like “The Help” to
flourish.
The Oscar will go to
Spencer, if for no other reason than the fact that hers promises to be one of
the better speeches. Bejo has a good chance to steal this one away though if
“The Artist” sweeps.
If it were up to me it would
go to Shailene Woodley for “The Descedants”, but since hers represents the most
egregious snub of all the nominations I’ll have to pick again. Picking from the
field that was nominated, I’d go with Jessica Chastain. She appeared in no less
than seven feature films this year, including critical darlings “The Tree of
Life” and “Take Shelter”, and is scheduled to appear in another five movies
in 2012. Her work in “The Help” is her most memorable.
Best Director
Here’s this year’s category
with the least amount of surprises.
Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”, Martin Scorsese for “Hugo”,
Terrence Malik for “The Tree of Life” and Alexander Payne for “The Descendants”
are all to be expected. Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” doesn’t rely so much on his director’s hand as it does on his writing, but the nomination is
still no surprise. Many have listed Steven Spielberg, Tate Taylor, Bennet
Miller and George Clooney as surprise omissions, but there are only five slots
to fill. “War Horse” is not Spielberg’s finest effort. “The Help” is helped
more by its casting than Taylor’s overall direction. And, Clooney doesn’t need
attention for “The Ides of March”; he already got a nod for acting. Only
Miller’s omission for “Moneyball” is truly a shame, since his invisible hand is
one of the director’s greatest illusions.
The Oscar will go to
Hazanavicius, unless it goes to Scorsese.
If I had my way it would go
to Malik for forging one of the most complete cinematic experiences I’ve ever
witnessed.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The adapted screenplay
category doesn’t carry a lot of surprises as the five contenders come from
great books (and one play) that made for solid screenplays. “The Descendants”,
“Hugo”, “The Ides of March”, “Moneyball”, and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
are some of the year's best in terms of screenplays. “The Girls with the Dragon
Tattoo” missed out, especially considering that the movie is much better than
its source material. “The Help” is another snub, which is probably for the better, since it was the film’s ensemble cast that made it worthy of awards more so
than the strength of its story.
The Oscar will go to
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash for “The Descendants” from the novel
by Kaui Hart Hemmings. It’s a good place to honor the descending “Descendants”.
If I had my way it would go
to Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chevrin for “Moneyball” from the book
“Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game” by Michael Lewis. The script
wonderfully balances characters with the business of baseball, never drawing
upon cliché and wrapping you up in a simple story told in a simple way with no
flare just for the show of it.
Best Original Screenplay
Original Screenplay has some
great entries, surprises or not. “The Artist” continues its dominance here.
“Bridesmaids” gets its much deserved recognition here for a gross out comedy
that is truly funny and actually has a brain. It’s good to see the greatly
overlooked “Margin Call” get noticed here for its story that calls the stock
market crash of 2008 as it really was. It’s no surprise at all that the Academy
loved Woody Allen’s ode to Paris and artists in his whimsical fantasy “Midnight
in Paris”. “A Separation”, however, created another welcome surprise in a rare
foreign language original screenplay nomination. It would’ve been nice for Tom
McCarthy to get some love for the smaller film “Win Win”, and Kevin Smith wrote
one of the most intelligent screenplays of the past several years in his
universally overlooked “Red State”.
The Oscar will go to Allen
for “Midnight in Paris” because it’s been a while since Woody’s been this good
and the Academy misses him.
If I had my way it would go
to Allen. Hey! Look at that! It looks like I’m going to agree with the Academy
for once.
Just a few other
observations about the remaining categories. I haven’t seen any of the Foreign
Language nominees because they are more often released in the U.S. after the Academy
nominations. I wish they Academy could fix their voting procedures on this and
other specialty categories in a way that could allow the public a chance to
keep up. The Feature Documentary field is particularly strong this year after
major changes were enacted in their nomination process, although I’ve only seen
one of them. John Williams was nominated for both of his Spielberg scores this
year while last year’s winners, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, found themselves
left out of the Music Score category despite their excellent score for “The
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”. Finally, only two Original Song nominees, what’s
up with that? And, the nominated song from “The Muppets” is perhaps the
strangest song of the movie. Not that I’m complaining, but… weird.
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